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A Practical Measure for the Complexity of Evolving Seismicity Patterns
Goltz, Christian
Earthquakes are a "complex" phenomenon. There is, however, no clear definition of what complexity actually is. Yet, it is important to distinguish between what is merely complicated and what is complex in the sense that simple rules can give rise to very rich behaviour. Seismicity is certainly a complicated phenomenon (difficult to understand) but simple models such as cellular automata indicate that earthquakes are truly complex. From the observational point of view, there exists the problem of quantification of complexity in real world seismicity patterns. Such a measurement is desirable, not only for fundamental understanding but also for monitoring and possibly for forecasting. Maybe the most workable definitions of complexity exist in informatics, summarised under the topic of algorithmic complexity. Here, after introducing the concepts, I apply such a measure of complexity to temporally evolving real-world seismicity patterns. Finally, I discuss the usefulness of the approach and regard the results in view of the occurrence of large earthquakes.
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